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0-14 population

Commentary

Overview

An ageing population and lower fertility rates in the future will mean the percentage of the population aged 0–14 years will decrease for most areas within the Auckland region. This is not to be confused with the actual number of children in the Auckland region, which is expected to increase by almost 20 percent between 2006 and 2031. The areas with the highest percentage of their population aged 0–14 years are and will continue to be in Manukau city.

Mapping the percentage of population aged 0–14 years

Figure 7.1 shows the percentage of the population aged 0–14 years from 1991 to 2031. The darker shades of green indicate where higher percentages are aged 0–14 years.

The maps pull together information about the historical and projected population. The maps for 1991–2006 are based on census data, while those for 2011–31 are based on current population projections (2006-base medium series).

Figure 7.1

Percentage of population aged 0-14

Note: More information about interpreting the maps is in the Interpreting the maps chapter.

"" Downloadable version of figure 7.1 (PDF, 6.7MB)

If you do not have Adobe Acrobat Reader, download Adobe Reader for PDFs to view or print this file.

Percentage of the population aged 0–14 years

Most areas are projected to have a decreasing proportion of their population being aged 0–14 years. This is reflected in figure 7.1, as the maps generally become lighter over time. Table 7.1 shows the percentage of each territorial authority's population aged 0–14 years for 1991, 2006, and 2031.

Table 7.1

Percentage of Auckland Region Population Aged 0–14 Years
By territorial authority
1991, 2006, and 2031
1991 2006 2031
Territorial authority Percent 
Rodney district 22.7 21.6 17.9
North Shore city 19.8 19.3 16.3
Waitakere city 24.7 23.3 19.8
Auckland city 19.7 18.4 15.3
Manukau city 26.7 25.7 21.8
Papakura district 25.8 24.7 22.3
Part of Franklin district(1) 24.9 24.0 19.7

(1) The part in Auckland region
Sources: Census of Population and Dwellings; Population projections
Note: 1991 data is based on census usually resident population count. Data for 2006 and 2031 based on estimated resident population. More information is in Notes and sources section.

In 1991 there were areas in Manukau city where more than 40 percent of the population was aged 0–14 years. By 2031 the areas with the highest percentages are likely to have about 30 percent of their population in this age group. Areas such as Manurewa, Mangere, and Otara have large numbers of Pacific people, who generally have high fertility rates and hence larger families.

Conversely, figure 7.1 shows there are few children living in the central Auckland city area. The percentage of this area's population who are 0–14 years is expected to remain constant, at less than 10 percent, between 1991 and 2031. This area has a significant number of Asian people (who generally have smaller families) and university students, as well as being a temporary entry point for many immigrants to New Zealand.

Population aged 0–14 years

Most areas have an increasing number of children, despite a decreasing proportion of their population being aged 0–14 years. This is because the total population is growing faster than the 0–14-years population, which results in the percentage of the population aged 0–14 years decreasing.

Table 7.2 shows the number of people in each territorial authority aged 0–14 years, for 1991, 2006, and 2031.

Table 7.2

Auckland Region's Population Aged 0–14 Years
By territorial authority
1991, 2006, and 2031
1991 2006 2031
Territorial authority (000)
Rodney district 12.4 20.0 24.4 
North Shore city 30.3 42.0 46.9
Waitakere city 33.8 45.6 53.7
Auckland city 60.2 79.0 88.9
Manukau city 60.3 89.1 114.6
Papakura district 9.6 11.6 14.0
Part of Franklin district(1) 7.4 10.5 11.9
Total 213.9 297.7 354.5

Sources: Census of Population and Dwellings; Population projections
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding. 1991 data based on census usually resident population count. Data for 2006 and 2031 based on estimated resident population. More information is in Notes and sources section.

Of the Auckland region's territorial authorities, Manukau city is projected to have the largest growth in the population aged 0–14 years, up from 89,100 in 2006 to 114,600 in 2031 – an increase of 25,500 over the 25-year projection period.

Implications

  • There are a number of implications about the 0–14 population in the Auckland region:

    The increasing number of children in the Auckland region means that new schools will have to be built. Currently, there are plans for seven new schools in just the Flat Bush and Botany areas alone (Tomorrow's Manukau, 2008). The actual number of new schools that will ultimately be needed in the Auckland region will be partly determined by future levels and patterns of fertility and migration, as well as factors such as average class size and availability of suitable sites.
  • Areas such as central Auckland city, with significant numbers of new migrants, couple-only families, and university students, generally do not have large numbers of children. The demand for childcare services and new schools in areas with these characteristics will not be as great as for areas with high percentages of children.

Related chapters

  • Ethnicity
  • Households and families
  • Housing
  • Population change

Further information

This page is part of Mapping Trends in the Auckland Region, available on http://www.stats.govt.nz/.

Notes and sources

Data sources

The historical data are based on the census usually resident population count from the 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Censuses.

The projected data comes from the 2006-base population projections released in December 2007. Projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and migration. There are three alternative series produced (low, medium, and high) using different assumptions. The population projections have as a base the estimated resident population at 30 June 2006, and extend to 2031. More information about population projections is on the Subnational Population Projections page, available on http://www.stats.govt.nz/.

The maps display data at area unit level. Area units are non-administrative areas that are in between meshblocks and territorial authorities. They generally coincide with suburbs (in urban areas) and rural neighbourhoods. The Auckland region is made up of 399 area units, while there are 1,927 area units throughout New Zealand. Digital boundary files, used for constructing the maps, can be downloaded from Digital Boundaries, available on http://www.stats.govt.nz/.

The Auckland region is one of 16 regions, which are aggregations of area units governed by regional councils. More information about the geographical hierarchy of areas and the maps is in the Interpreting the maps chapter.

Usual residence and estimated resident population

Tables 7.1 and 7.2 use the census usually resident population count for the 1991 data, while data for 2006 and 2031 are based on the estimated resident population. While the source is different to that used in the maps in figure 7.1 (2006 data is based on the census usually resident population count), the effect on the maps is insignificant.

Reference

Tomorrow's Manukau (2008). The Changing Face of Manukau 2008, Manukau City Council.

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