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Gross Domestic Product: September 2009 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  23 December 2009
Technical notes

First available information for September 2009 quarter

Statistics in the 'Tables' section provide the first available information on the chain-volume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) for the September 2009 quarter.

Statistics for recent periods are based on information available at the time of publication and are subject to revision as additional or improved data becomes available.

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product: Sources and Methods (second edition)

The second edition of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product: Sources and Methods (2nd ed.) was released on 20 June 2008. It provides an update of the sources and methods used for all quarterly GDP series produced by Statistics NZ, in both chain-volume measures and current prices. Significant changes to compilation methods and data sources have been introduced since the publication of the first edition of this report in 1996. These changes include the implementation of the new international standard, System of National Accounts 1993; the rebasing of the constant price series from 1991/92 to 1995/96 prices; the introduction of chain-linking; and the adoption of a new industry classification, the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 1996 (ANZSIC96).

A free electronic version is available on Statistics NZ's website (www.stats.govt.nz) or contact the information centre (call toll-free 0508 525 525 or email info@stats.govt.nz) for hard copies.

Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices

The series in this release are chain-linked and expressed in the average prices of the 1995/96 year. They are best described as annually reweighted chained Laspeyres volume indexes. Series are expressed in 1995/96 dollars rather than as index numbers, since this has the advantage of showing the relative size of each component.

The chain-volume measures of GDP and expenditure on GDP are constructed by: (a) compiling a Laspeyres volume index of the component in question, using the previous year's prices as weights; and then (b) chaining the sequence of annual movements to produce a continuous time series. This procedure is used at different levels within the accounts. For example, GDP is compiled by weighting together the individual industry value-added components to produce a Laspeyres volume index for each quarter, and then linking the resulting indexes to produce the GDP time series. Each industry component, such as transport and communication, is also a chained-volume series. At this lowest level, the 'elemental series' are not chained and are either single series in their own right or fixed-weight series comprising a number of components. Chaining is not adopted, either because relative price changes are not considered significant or (and this is the more likely scenario) the detailed information needed for annual weights is not available.

It is important to note that chain-volume series are not additive (ie the chain-volume series for an aggregate will not equal the sum of the values of its components). This is explained more fully in the report Chain Volume Measures in National Accounts, available on the Statistics NZ website (www.stats.govt.nz). This report, published as a discussion document in 1998, contains a detailed discussion of the concepts and procedures used to compile chain-volume series.

In most cases, the industry 'elemental series' estimates that make up the production-based GDP are calculated by extrapolating value added, using indicator series that represent the quantities of output produced. The technique known as double deflation, by which volume value added is calculated as the difference between volume outputs and inputs, is not widely used. It is currently used for the agriculture and electricity industries on a quarterly basis, and for water transport, business services, cultural and recreational services, and personal and other services on an annual basis.

Production-based measure the preferred series

Conceptually, both the production- and expenditure-based GDP series are the same. However, as each series uses independent data and estimation techniques, some differences between the alternative measures arise. The expenditure-based series has historically shown more quarterly volatility and is more likely to be subject to timing and valuation problems. For these reasons, the production-based measure is the preferred measure for quarter-on-quarter and annual changes.

Implicit price deflators

Table 5.1 contains implicit price deflators (IPDs) for expenditure on GDP and its components. IPDs provide a broad measure of price change for total economic activity and each of the expenditure components. They are calculated by dividing the seasonally adjusted current price quarterly series by the equivalent chain-volume series, and consequently provide an estimate of price change between the base period and any other period, using the quantity weights in the latter period. Because weights change from period to period, a change in an IPD between any two periods, neither of which is the base period, reflects changes in both actual prices and weights or compositional changes. Significant compositional changes may result in the IPDs being an unreliable estimate of price change. This problem is more likely to occur in the gross national expenditure (GNE) and expenditure on GDP aggregates, because both include the change in inventories item, which is subject to extreme compositional changes, including a change in sign.

Revisions policy

Revisions to the previously published series may be made each quarter. The frequency and cause of these revisions are as follows:

  • Quarterly: additional data becoming available for the latest quarters, which is used to replace existing estimates; revisions to quarterly data (eg revisions to the Balance of Payments or Retail Trade Survey), which will be incorporated as soon as possible to maintain consistency between published macro-economic statistics.
  • Annual: introduction of annual data following the release of the latest annual national accounts each year; annual updating of the weights used to combine component series to totals and subsequent chaining (see below).
  • Irregular: for example, methodological changes. However, note that as far as possible, revisions of this nature are incorporated to coincide with the annual cycle of revisions outlined above.

In addition, each of the above causes for revision, and/or the addition of a new point in the actual quarterly series, has the potential to alter seasonal factors and therefore may lead to a revision in the seasonally adjusted series.

Revisions will also occur as a result of the quarterly improvement project described below.

National accounts quality improvement project

Over the past year, a number of potential improvements to the annual and quarterly national accounts were identified and prioritised. These improvements relate to data sources, methods and processes. Over the next two or so years, a number of quality improvement projects will be undertaken and the outcomes from these projects incorporated into the annual and quarterly national accounts statistics.

Revisions resulting from chain-linking

One of the key benefits gained through adopting chain-volume measures in place of fixed-weight series is that the relative weights of the component series are more up- to-date. This reduces the likelihood of introducing biases in the volume measures, which would otherwise become progressively unrepresentative as relative prices change. However, the disadvantage is that the annual reweighting introduces another cause for revision.

Reweighting is part of the annual revisions cycle and is usually timed to coincide with the introduction of other new annual data from the current price GDP accounts. These changes are normally incorporated in the September quarter release, which is published at the end of December.

The current price annual accounts provide the detailed component series needed for weighting the production-based series of GDP. There is currently a two-year time lag before these detailed series are available. As a result, the latest year for which up-to-date weights have been used for the production-based series is for the year ended 31 March 2007, and all subsequent quarters use these weights.

Current price data is available on a more timely basis for the components comprising the expenditure-based measure of GDP. As a result, the latest year for which up-to-date weights have been used for the expenditure-based series is for the year ended 31 March 2007, and all subsequent quarters use these weights.

When the weights are updated each year, this procedure results in revisions to all periods beyond the latest year for which detailed series are available (currently 2006/07 for the production-based measure and 2006/07 for the expenditure-based measure).

Direct and indirect seasonal adjustment

The level at which a series is seasonally adjusted is important, since it has the potential to affect the quality of that seasonally adjusted series. The individual component series of the main economic variables can be seasonally adjusted and then summed to derive totals. This is called an indirect seasonal adjustment. Alternatively, the main economic variables can be seasonally adjusted at the total level, independently of the seasonal adjustment of their components. The adjustment of the total of an aggregate series is called a direct seasonal adjustment. The indirect approach has the advantage of retaining additivity, but this applies only to the current price series. While the indirect approach conceptually also provides additivity for volume series, additivity is lost by chain-linking.

The direct approach will often give better results if the component series show similar seasonal patterns. At the most detailed level, the irregular factor may be large compared with the seasonal factor and therefore may make it difficult to perform a proper seasonal adjustment. In a small country such as New Zealand, irregular events can have a strong impact on particular data. However, if the component series show the same seasonal pattern, aggregation often reduces the impact of the irregular factors in the component series. This is particularly relevant for New Zealand, where many economic series are affected by seasonal fluctuations in the primary industries.

Statistics NZ has analysed both the direct and indirect approaches for the two quarterly GDP aggregates: production and expenditure on GDP. The direct approach has been chosen as the preferred method because the resulting series are smoother and more stable.

The residual between the seasonally adjusted components and the aggregates is referred to as the balancing item (see tables 1.2 and 1.3). The balancing item will often show significant seasonal variations. This is to be expected, as it captures the undetected seasonality in the component series.

The level at which seasonal adjustment is applied to quarterly GDP series may differ from other Statistics NZ surveys (eg the Economic Survey of Manufacturing and the Wholesale Trade Survey). These may contribute to differences in the aggregate seasonally adjusted series.

Broad industry groups

In tables 2.1 and 2.4, industry groups are combined to form the following broad groupings, based on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC):

  • primary industries (agriculture; fishing, forestry and mining)
  • goods-producing industries (manufacturing; electricity, gas and water; construction)
  • service industries (wholesale trade; retail, accommodation and restaurants; transport and communications; finance, insurance and business services; government administration and defence; personal and community services).

In addition to these industrial groupings there exists an 'unallocated' category, which includes unallocated taxes on production and imports (import duties, GST and taxes on capital transactions) and the nominal industry.

Final consumption expenditure

Private final consumption expenditure is the sum of household outlays on consumer goods and services, and the expenditure on non-capital items by private non-profit organisations serving households. General government final consumption expenditure includes both central and local government, as well as health and education.

Annual percentage changes

When using annual percentage changes, care should be taken to ensure that the measures used are correctly understood. Those in tables 2.4, 2.5, and 3.3 compare the level of economic activity in the latest quarter with the level of activity in the corresponding quarter 12 months earlier. Tables 2.7 and 3.5, on the other hand, display the percentage change in the level of GDP and expenditure on GDP, respectively, for the annual period each quarter, compared with the same period 12 months earlier. Annual measures are calculated by summing the series for each four-quarter period, dividing by the sum of the series of the preceding four quarters, and then expressing this as a percentage.

Real gross national disposable income

Gross national disposable income (GNDI) is the income received (less income payable) by New Zealand residents, from both domestic and overseas sources, after taking account of income redistribution by way of international transfers, or gross national income (GNI) plus international transfers.

Real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) measures the real purchasing power of national disposable income, taking into account changes in the terms of trade, and real gains from net investment and transfer income with the rest of the world. Effectively, it is a measure of the volume of goods and services New Zealand residents have command over.

RGNDI is calculated as follows: 

chain-volume measure of gross domestic product (production-based measure)
plus         a terms of trade effect (trading gain/loss)
equals    real gross domestic income
plus         real value of total net investment income
equals    real gross national income
plus         real value of total net transfers
equals    real gross national disposable income

where the terms of trade effect is defined as: 
    current price exports deflated by an imports implicit price index 
    less chain-volume measure of exports

and the real value of total net investment income equals: 
    investment income credits 
    less investment income debits 
all deflated by an imports implicit price index

and the real value of total net transfers equals: 
    transfers credits 
    less transfers debits 
all deflated by an imports implicit price index.

A per capita measure is simply the series in question divided by the population of New Zealand. From the March 1991 quarter onwards, the definition used is the 'estimated resident population of New Zealand'. This is defined as New Zealand residents currently in New Zealand plus those temporarily overseas. Overseas tourists visiting New Zealand are excluded from this measure. Before March 1991, the definition used was the 'de facto' population, which excludes New Zealand residents temporarily overseas and includes overseas tourists in New Zealand. Apart from the definitional change, there is also a slight discontinuity at this point, as the series from March 1991 onwards includes an allowance for the census undercount.

More information

For more information, follow the link from the technical notes of this release on the Statistics NZ website.

Copyright

Information obtained from Statistics NZ may be freely used, reproduced, or quoted unless otherwise specified. In all cases Statistics NZ must be acknowledged as the source.

Liability

While care has been used in processing, analysing and extracting information, Statistics NZ gives no warranty that the information supplied is free from error. Statistics NZ shall not be liable for any loss suffered through the use, directly or indirectly, of any information, product or service.

Timing

Timed statistical releases are delivered using postal and electronic services provided by third parties. Delivery of these releases may be delayed by circumstances outside the control of Statistics NZ. Statistics NZ accepts no responsibility for any such delays.

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