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Household Labour Force Survey: December 2013 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  05 February 2014
Revisions

Each quarter, the seasonal adjustment process is applied to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. This means that seasonally adjusted estimates for previous quarters may change slightly. The following table lists the changes in estimates between the current and previous quarters for the seasonally adjusted data. For example, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed males in the September 2013 quarter was 74,000. In the December 2013 quarter release, that estimate is revised to 73,000. These numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000, but the relative change derived from the unrounded estimates is a downward revision of 0.20 percent.

Percent revision from last estimate, seasonally adjusted
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Dec 2012  -0.01 -0.02  0.66 0.22 -0.05 0.02
Mar 2013 0.00 0.00  -0.08 -0.09 0.01 0.02
Jun 2013  -0.01   0.02  0.12 -0.40   -0.02    0.01 
Sep 2013  0.03 0.00  -0.71  0.30  0.06 -0.03

The following table presents revisions for the trend estimates. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data.

Percent revision from last estimate, trend
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Dec 2012 0.00 -0.02 0.22 0.23 0.00 0.00
Mar 2013  -0.01  0.00 0.29 -0.14 -0.02 0.02
Jun 2013  -0.06  -0.04 0.24 -0.74 0.04 0.11
Sep 2013  0.10 0.08 -2.88  1.25 0.34 -0.25

Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, although in practice estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little. For example, the trend estimate of unemployed females for the December 2012 quarter was 85,000 for that time period. In the December 2013 quarter, one year later, the trend estimate of females unemployed for the December 2012 quarter is 83,000, a decrease of 2,000 (or down 2.3 percent using the unrounded estimates). This is an example of a '4-step ahead' revision.

The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and gives some indication to what extent the current estimates might be revised when the revised December 2013 data becomes available.

Mean absolute percent revisions
Seasonally adjusted Trend
1-step 4-step 1-step 4-step
Male employed 0.05 0.08 0.16 0.17
Female employed 0.06 0.10 0.24 0.25
Male unemployed 0.48 0.73 1.73 1.74
Female unemployed 0.52 0.93 1.86 1.87
Male not in labour force 0.09 0.16 0.34 0.35
Female not in labour force 0.08 0.14 0.33 0.35

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