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Household Labour Force Survey: March 2013 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  09 May 2013
Revisions

Each quarter, the seasonal adjustment process is applied to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. This means that seasonally adjusted estimates for any of the previously published quarters may change slightly. The following table lists the changes in estimates between the current and previous publication for the seasonally adjusted data. For example, the seasonally adjusted number of female employment for the March 2012 quarter was 1,043,000. In the March 2013 quarter release, that estimate is revised to 1,042,000. These numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000, but the relative change derived from the unrounded estimates is a downward revision of 0.07 percent.

Percent revision from last published, seasonally adjusted
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Mar 2012   -0.17  -0.07 0.82  0.34 0.28 0.08
Jun  2012 0.04 0.00  0.89 0.04  -0.09  -0.01
Sep 2012

0.00

 0.06 0.28  0.11 0.05  -0.10
Dec 2012  0.13 0.01 -1.86 -0.61  -0.24  0.03

The following table presents revisions for the trend estimates. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data.

Percent revision from last published, trend
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Mar 2012  -0.05   -0.04   0.15  0.06 0.05 0.06
Jun  2012 -0.05   -0.10  0.93  0.23 0.08 0.13
Sep 2012 -0.08   0.25  0.87  0.60 0.08 -0.40
Dec 2012  0.47 1.39 -4.34 -2.48  -0.60 -1.84

Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, though in practice estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little. For example, the trend estimate of males not in the labour force for the March 2012 quarter was 426,000 when first published. In the March 2013 quarter, one year later, the trend estimate of males not in the labour force for the March 2012 quarter is 430,000, an increase of 3,000 (or up 0.80 percent using the unrounded estimates). This is an example of a '4-step ahead' revision.

The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and gives some indication of how much the current estimates might be revised when the June 2013 data becomes available.

Mean absolute percent revisions
Seasonally adjusted Trend
1-step 4-step 1-step 4-step
Male employed 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.17
Female employed 0.07 0.12 0.28 0.27
Male unemployed 0.47 0.70 1.69 1.66
Female unemployed 0.53 0.98 1.90 1.90
Male not in labour force 0.10 0.19 0.37 0.39
Female not in labour force 0.09 0.16 0.38 0.39
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