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Household Labour Force Survey: March 2014 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  07 May 2014
Revisions

Each quarter, the seasonal adjustment process is applied to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. This means that seasonally adjusted estimates for previous quarters may change slightly. The following table lists the changes in estimates between the current and previous quarters for the seasonally adjusted data. For example, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed females in the December 2013 quarter was 80,000. In the March 2014 quarter release, that estimate is revised to 79,000. These numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000, but the relative change derived from the unrounded estimates is a downward revision of 0.42 percent.

Percent revision from last estimate, seasonally adjusted
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Mar 2013 0.00  -0.01   0.78 0.14   0.02  -0.01
Jun 2013 0.00  0.01  -0.21  -0.02  -0.01 -0.01
Sep 2013   0.03   -0.02 -1.13  0.20     0.02    -0.01 
Dec 2013 -0.04   0.02   0.54  -0.42   -0.01    0.04 

The following table presents revisions for the trend estimates. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data.

Percent revision from last estimate, trend
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Mar 2013 -0.01  0.00  0.69 -0.07 0.00 0.00
Jun 2013     0.01    -0.01 -0.31  0.14  0.01  -0.02 
Sep 2013    0.04   -0.05 -0.93  0.30 0.00 0.03
Dec 2013 -0.14  0.05   2.22  -1.20 -0.03   0.13 

Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, although in practice estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little. For example, in the March 2013 release, the trend estimate of unemployed males was 68,000 for that time period. In the March 2014 quarter, one year later, the trend estimate of unemployed males for the March 2013 quarter is 72,000, an increase of 4,000 (or up 6.63 percent using the unrounded estimates). This is an example of a '4-step ahead' revision.

The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and gives some indication to what extent the current estimates might be revised when the revised June 2014 data becomes available.

Mean absolute percent revisions
Seasonally adjusted Trend
1-step 4-step 1-step 4-step
Male employed 0.05 0.08 0.16 0.17
Female employed 0.06 0.10 0.24 0.24
Male unemployed 0.48 0.76 1.73 1.79
Female unemployed 0.52 0.93 1.85 1.87
Male not in labour force 0.09 0.16 0.34 0.35
Female not in labour force 0.08 0.14 0.32 0.35

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