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Labour Market Statistics: June 2016 quarter (includes Household Labour Force Survey)
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  17 August 2016
Revisions

Revisions to Household Labour Force Survey

The Labour Market Statistics: June 2016 quarter release includes revisions to previous quarters that we made as a result of redeveloping the HLFS. Included in these revisions were downward changes to the estimates for unemployment and labour force participation.

See Household Labour Force Survey: Revisions to labour market estimates for more information about the revisions.

The following estimates take into the account the revisions already signalled in the above information paper (published 29 June 2016). Therefore, the revisions described below relate specifically to the effects of seasonal adjustment.

Each quarter, we apply the seasonal adjustment process to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, which means that seasonally adjusted estimates for previous quarters may change slightly. In practice, estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little.

The March 2016 quarter unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2 percent after we applied seasonal adjustment.

This table lists the changes in estimates between the current and previous quarters for the seasonally adjusted data. 

Percent revision from last estimate, seasonally adjusted

Quarter

Male employed

Female employed

Male unemployed

Female unemployed

Male not in labour force

Female not in labour force

Jun 2015

-0.17

-0.02

-0.01

-0.32

0.26

0.11

Sep 2015

0.06

-0.01

-0.13

0.25

-0.01

-0.01

Dec 2015

-0.01

-0.04

-0.04

-0.19

-0.01

0.09

Mar 2016

0.14

0.09

0.28

0.24

-0.30

-0.20

This table presents revisions for the trend estimates. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data.

Percent revision from last estimate, trend

Quarter

Male employed

Female employed

Male unemployed

Female unemployed

Male not in labour force

Female not in labour force

Jun 2015

-0.11

0.01

-0.02

-0.22

0.07

0.02

Sep 2015

-0.17

-0.04

-0.15

0.77

0.11

0.08

Dec 2015

-0.18

-0.16

-0.12

1.25

0.25

0.22

Mar 2016

0.51

0.34

1.27

1.45

-0.93

-0.52

The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and indicates to what extent the current estimates might be revised when the revised data for the next quarter becomes available.

Mean absolute percent revisions

Seasonally adjusted

Trend

1-step

4-step

1-step

4-step

Male employed

0.05

0.08

0.17

0.17

Female employed

0.06

0.11

0.24

0.24

Male unemployed

0.46

0.75

1.75

1.81

Female unemployed

0.52

0.86

1.86

1.85

Male not in labour force

0.1

0.17

0.38

0.37

Female not in labour force

0.09

0.15

0.35

0.37

In the table above, a ‘1-step ahead’ revision is one we make to an estimate one quarter later. For example, if in the March 2010 quarter the seasonally adjusted estimate of females employed was first published as 1,020,000, and then in the June 2010 quarter this same estimate was revised to 1,022,000, this would be an upward revision of 0.20 percent.

A ‘4-step ahead’ revision is one we make to an estimate four quarters later. For example, if in the March 2010 quarter release the trend estimate of females not in the labour force was first published as 665,000 and then in the March 2011 release, one year later, the trend estimate of females not in the labour force for the March 2010 quarter was revised to 664,000, this would be a decrease of 1,000, or a downward revision of 0.15 percent.

Revisions to HLFS estimated working-age population

The estimated working-age population used to calculate HLFS statistics in this release differs from that of the Household Labour Force Survey Estimated Working-age Population: June 2016 quarter published 27 July 2016.

See Labour Market Statistics period specific information – Datainfo+ for further explanation on the changes to the estimated working-age population.

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