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Retail Trade Survey: June 2013 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  14 August 2013
Commentary

All values are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated.

Strong rise in core retail sales volume 

The core retail sales volume (which excludes the vehicle-related industries) rose 2.3 percent in the June 2013 quarter, after a 1.0 percent increase in the March 2013 quarter.

The latest rise is the strongest increase in this series since a 2.9 percent rise in the December 2006 quarter. The December 2006 rise was influenced by increases in hardware, building, and garden supplies, and fuel retailing.

Eleven of the 13 core retail industries had higher sales volumes this quarter.

 Graphs, Retail Industry contribution to the change in seasonally adjusted sales volumes, change from March 2013 quarter.

The total volume of retail sales (including the vehicle-related industries) rose 1.7 percent.

Industries driving the June quarter increase were:

  • food and beverage services, up 4.5 percent
  • motor vehicle and parts retailing, up 3.0 percent
  • department stores, up 5.4 percent.

Three industries recorded decreases in the June 2013 quarter, mainly dominated by a 5.0 percent fall in the fuel retailing industry. 

Note: Fuel and motor vehicle and parts retailing industries are not seasonally adjusted as they do not show reliable seasonal patterns.

Core retail industries lift sales value

The sales value for core retailing (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries) rose 2.0 percent ($271 million) in the June 2013 quarter, after a 1.1 percent ($143 million) increase in the March 2013 quarter. This quarter's rise is also the largest increase in core retailing since a 3.3 percent ($374 million) rise in the December 2006 quarter.

Eleven of the 13 core retail industries had higher sales values this quarter.

Graph, Retail industry contributions to the change in seasonally adjusted sales values, change from March 2013 quarter.

The total value of retail sales (including the vehicle-related industries) rose 0.9 percent ($169 million) this quarter.

Industries with significant increases this quarter were:

  • food and beverage services, up 4.6 percent ($83 million)
  • hardware, building, and garden supplies, up 4.0 percent ($52 million)
  • motor vehicle and parts retailing, up 2.0 percent ($47 million)
  • department stores, up 4.6 percent ($44 million).

Three industries recorded decreases in sales value, which was also dominated by fuel retailing, down 7.5 percent ($150 million).

Note: Fuel and motor vehicle and parts retailing industries are not seasonally adjusted as they do not show reliable seasonal patterns.

Trends rise for sales volume and value

The trend for the total sales volume has been generally rising since June 2009, up 14 percent since then. The core sales volume has been generally rising since the March 2009 quarter, up 14 percent since then.

 Graph, Retail sales volumes, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

The trend for the total sales value has risen 19 percent since the period of decline between June 2008 and March 2009. In general, the core sales value trend has continued to rise since the series began in 1995.

Graph, Retail sales values, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

 

Record increase in food and beverage services

The food and beverage services industry sales volume recorded its largest increase since the series began in 1995, up 4.5 percent in the June 2013 quarter. This rise follows a 0.6 percent increase in the March 2013 quarter.

This industry consists of cafes, restaurants, takeaway food and catering services, pubs, taverns, bars and clubs. Half of this industry is made up of cafes and restaurants. 

The food and beverage services increase was volume-driven with little change in prices for the June 2013 quarter (up 0.1 percent).

The food and beverage services sales value also had the largest increase since 1995, up 4.6 percent ($83 million). This rise follows a 1.0 percent ($18 million) increase in the March 2013 quarter.

 Graph, Food and beverage services sales volumes, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

  

The trend for food and beverage services sales volume has been generally rising since the September 2010 quarter, up 11 percent since then. The sales value trend has been generally rising since the June 2010 quarter, up 17 percent since then.

Mixed results in the vehicle-related industries

Sales in these two industries are not seasonally adjusted as they do not show a reliable seasonal pattern. The actual numbers can therefore be treated in the same way as seasonally adjusted numbers.

The volume of motor vehicles and parts retailing sales rose 3.0 percent. This rise is the second-largest increase to this quarter's total volumes rise.

Motor vehicle and parts prices fell 1.0 percent this quarter, resulting in a 2.0 percent ($47 million) rise in sales value.

 Graph, Motor vehicle and parts sales volumes, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

The trend for motor vehicle and parts sales volumes has increased 23 percent since a fall in the December 2010 quarter. This trend level is now 0.9 percent below the series peak of September 2007.

 Graph, Actual fuel sales volumes, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

Conversely, the volume of sales in the fuel retailing industry fell 5.0 percent – the largest decrease of any industry in the June 2013 quarter. Fuel prices fell 2.6 percent over the June quarter, resulting in a 7.5 percent ($150 million) fall in sales value.

 

Actual sales volumes and values up on last year

In the June 2013 quarter compared with the June 2012 quarter:

  • The volume of core actual retail sales rose 4.5 percent.
  • The value of core actual retail sales rose 3.8 percent, to $13.3 billion.
  • The volume of total actual retail sales rose 4.2 percent.
  • The value of total actual retail sales rose 3.3 percent, to $17.5 billion.

 

Strong sales for the North Island

Note: the Retail Trade Survey is designed at a national level. Caution should be used when interpreting regional-level figures.

The value of sales in the North Island rose 1.5 percent ($196 million) in the June 2013 quarter, following a 1.1 percent ($140 million) increase in the March 2013 quarter.

The rise in North Island sales is the result of:

  • Auckland, up 1.6 percent ($101 million) 
  • Waikato, up 1.5 percent ($28 million)
  • Wellington, up 0.2 percent ($5 million)
  • remainder of the North Island, up 1.7 percent ($63 million).

 Graph, North Island sales values, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

The value of sales in the South Island fell 0.1 percent ($6 million), following a 0.5 percent ($22 million) increase in the March 2013 quarter.

The slight fall in South Island sales is the result of:

  • Canterbury, up 0.3 percent ($8 million)
  • remainder of the South Island, down 0.7 percent ($15 million).

Graph, South Island sales values, quarterly, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

Actual value of stock up on last year

Stock figures are recorded as at 30 June 2013. All references to stocks are in actual (unadjusted) dollars.

The total value of stock held at the end of the June 2013 quarter ($6.3 billion) was 0.5 percent ($32 million) higher than at the end of the June 2012 quarter.

The value of stock for the core retail industries ($4.8 billion) was 0.5 percent ($23 million) higher than at the end of June 2012 quarter.

 Graph, Quarterly retail stock levels, June 2007 quarter to June 2013 quarter.

The largest stock increases were in:

  • supermarket and grocery stores, up 8.5 percent ($51 million) 
  • department stores, up 3.4 percent ($24 million)
  • non-store and commission-based retailing, up 23 percent ($21 million).

The notable stock decreases were in:

  • recreational goods, down 7.4 percent ($32 million)
  • electrical and electronic goods, down 7.0 percent  ($24 million)
  • clothing, footwear, and accessories, down 2.7 percent ($20 million).

 

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