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Subnational Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  30 September 2015
Key facts

Subnational ethnic population projections indicate the future population living in New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs) for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific.

The low, medium, and high growth projections indicate that between 2013 and 2038:

  • The population growth rate for all four ethnic groups will slow in all areas.
  • All ethnic populations will gradually age, with more people aged 65 years and over.

The medium projection indicates that between 2013 and 2038:

  • The Asian and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions and TAs.
  • The Māori ethnic population will grow in all regions and 62 TAs, and decline in 5 TAs.
  • The 'European or Other' ethnic population will grow in 11 regions and decline in 5, and grow in 37 TAs and decline in 30.
  • The Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will all increase their share of the total population in most areas because their growth rates are higher than the total population. 

Graph, Projected 'European or Other' average annual population change, by regional council area, 2013(base) to 2038.Graph, Projected Māori average annual population change, by regional council area, 2013(base) to 2038.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, ISSN 2463-3178, 30 September 2015

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