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Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043 update
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  22 February 2017
Key facts

Subnational population projections indicate the future population of New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority (TA) areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas (ALBAs).

The low, medium, and high growth projections all indicate:

  • The population growth rate will slow in all regions, cities, districts (except Buller), and ALBAs between 2013 and 2043.
  • All areas will be home to more people aged 65+ in 2043.
  • Deaths will increase relative to births in almost all areas as the population ages.

The medium projection indicates:

  • Fifteen of New Zealand's 16 regions will have more people in 2043 than in 2013, although 17 TA areas will have fewer.
  • Deaths will outnumber births in three-fifths of TA areas by 2043.
  • Forty-seven TA areas will have fewer children in 2043 than in 2013.
  • More than half of New Zealand's population growth between 2013 and 2043 will be in Auckland.
  • Auckland's population will reach 2 million by 2033. 

Graph, Projected average annual population change, 2013–43.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0681 
22 February 2017

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