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Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  19 February 2015
Key facts

Subnational population projections give an indication of the future population of New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs).

The low, medium, and high growth projections all indicate:

  • The population growth rate will slow in all regions, cities, districts, and Auckland LBAs between 2013 and 2043.
  • All areas will be home to more people aged 65+ in 2043.
  • Deaths will increase relative to births in all areas, as the population ages.

The medium projection indicates:

  • All regions will have more people in 2043 than in 2013, although 26 territorial authority areas will have less.
  • Deaths will outnumber births in two-thirds of territorial authority areas by 2043.
  • 51 territorial authority areas will have fewer children in 2043 than in 2013.
  • Three-fifths of New Zealand's population growth between 2013 and 2043 will be in Auckland.
  • Auckland's population will reach 2 million by 2033. 
    Graph, Projected average annual population change, by regional council area, 2013 to 2043.  

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0681
19 February 2015

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