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Ethnic population projections

For detailed projections see:

National ethnic population projections

New 2013-base national ethnic population projections were released in May 2015 for four broad and overlapping ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific. These supersede the updated 2006-base projections released in April 2010. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2013 as a base, and cover the period 2014–38 at one-year intervals.

Subnational ethnic population projections

New 2013-base subnational ethnic population projections were released in September 2015 for the same four broad and overlapping ethnic populations for New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas. These projections cover the 25-year period to 2038 at five-year intervals, by sex and five-year age groups (to 85 years and over).

Note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.

The ethnic concept used in these projections is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can identify with more than one ethnicity. Ethnicity is different from ancestry, birthplace, and nationality. For example, people can identify with Māori ethnicity although they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor.

Page updated 19 February 2016

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