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National 'European or Other' projections

For detailed projections see:

The projections for the 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnic group include people who belong to the 'European' or 'Other ' ethnic groups in level 1 of the Statistical standard for ethnicity. If a person belongs to both the 'European' and 'Other' ethnic groups they are counted only once. Almost all people in the 'Other' ethnic group belong to the 'New Zealander' subgroup.

Total ‘European or Other’ population

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance the ‘European or Other’ population will increase from 3.31 million at 30 June 2013 to 3.43–3.62 million in 2025, and to 3.43–3.82 million in 2038.The median projection indicates the 'European or Other' population will make up 65.6 percent of New Zealand’s population in 2038, compared with 74.6 percent in 2013.

Drivers of growth

The lower ‘European or Other’ share will be the result of lower-than-average population growth rate. This rate reflects the combination of lower fertility, older age structure, and comparatively lower net migration. The increasingly older age structure of the ‘European or Other’ population means fewer births (because fewer women will be in the childbearing age groups), more deaths, and less momentum for future population growth compared with the Māori and Pacific populations.

Age structure

The number of people aged 65+ identifying with a 'European or Other' ethnicity is set to reach 1 million by the late 2030s – the same number as in each of the broad working-age groups – 15–39 and 40–64. The median projection suggests 28 percent of the 'European or Other' population would be in each of those three broad age groups, with just 17 percent aged 0–14.

The median projection indicates that of all New Zealand children (aged 0–14), 'European or Other' will make up 63.2 percent of all New Zealand children in 2038, compared with 71.6 percent in 2013. For the 65+ age group, the ‘European or Other’ share was 88.3 percent in 2013. The median projection indicates this will drop to 77.5 percent in 2038 despite a substantial increase in number.

Page updated 19 February 2016

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