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National Māori projections

For detailed projections see:

The latest projections of the Māori population living in New Zealand have the estimated resident population of Māori ethnicity at 30 June 2013 as a base. The Māori population are those who identify with the Māori ethnicity, either solely or with other ethnic groups such as ‘European or Other’, Asian, and Pacific.

Total Māori population

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance the Māori population will increase from 0.69 million at 30 June 2013 to 0.83–0.91 million in 2025, and to 1.00–1.18 million in 2038. The median projection indicates the Māori population will make up 19.5 percent of New Zealand’s population, compared with 15.6 percent in 2013.

Drivers of growth

Māori population growth will be driven by their high rate of birth and natural increase (births minus deaths). During 2012–14, the total fertility rate was 2.5 births per woman, compared with the overall New Zealand total fertility rate of 2.0 births per woman. Ethnic intermarriage (parents with different ethnicities) also makes an important contribution to Māori population growth – about one-quarter of Māori births (ie where the child is identified as Māori) have a non-Māori mother and a Māori father.

Age structure

The number of Māori children (aged 0–14 years) is likely to increase. The median projection indicates Māori children will make up 32.6 percent of all New Zealand children in 2038, compared with 25.6 percent in 2013. While the New Zealand population aged 65+ comprises mainly ‘European or Other’ people, the Māori proportion of this age group is projected to increase. By 2038, the Māori share will be 10.1 percent, up from 5.8 percent in 2013.

The Māori population overall will become older, but will continue to have a much younger age structure than the total New Zealand population due to higher Māori birth rates. Half the Māori population will be older than 28 years in 2038, compared with 24 years in 2013.

Page updated 19 February 2016

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