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Subnational Asian projections

For detailed projections see:

The broad Asian ethnic population will grow in all regions, territorial authority areas (TAs), and almost all Auckland local board areas (LBAs) between 2013 and 2038 under the medium projection. By 2038, the Asian population in Manurewa LBA is projected to be slightly lower than in 2013. The growth across New Zealand will be driven by the assumed levels of net migration, followed by natural increase (births minus deaths) in most areas.

Territorial authority areas

For TAs, the largest numerical increases in the Asian population between 2013 and 2038 will be in the cities of Christchurch (up 44,000 from 36,000), Hamilton (up 26,000 from 21,000), and Wellington (up 25,000 from 32,000).

Auckland local board areas

Among Auckland LBAs, Howick (up 41,000 from 52,000 in 2013), Waitemata (up 37,000 from 24,000 in 2013), Henderson-Massey (up 35,000 from 25,000 in 2013), and Whau (up 32,000 from 27,000 in 2013) are projected to have the largest numerical increases over the 25 years. All LBAs are projected to increase their Asian population by at least 75 percent over the 25 years, except for Manurewa.

In Auckland, 1 in 3 people are likely to identify with an Asian ethnicity in 2038, up from about 1 in 4 in 2013. Other regional increases in the Asian share include Wellington (up 8 percentage points to 19 percent in 2038), Bay of Plenty (up 7 percentage points to 12 percent in 2038), and Nelson (up 7 percentage points to 12 percent in 2038).

The projections indicate that almost two-thirds of New Zealand's Asian population will continue to live in Auckland. By 2038, the broad Asian population is projected to become the largest of the major ethnic groups in Whau, Puketapapa, and Howick local board areas.

Page updated 19 February 2016

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