Stats NZ has a new website.

For new releases go to

www.stats.govt.nz

As we transition to our new site, you'll still find some Stats NZ information here on this archive site.

  • Share this page to Facebook
  • Share this page to Twitter
  • Share this page to Google+
Subnational family and household projections

For detailed projections see:

These results are from the medium projection of the 2013-base subnational family and household projections and the medium projection of the 2013-base subnational population projections.

The projections are derived from the subnational population projections by multiplying the projected population by assumed living arrangement type rates for each age-sex group. Three alternative projections (low, medium, and high) are produced using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. One set of living arrangement type rates are used for all three projections.

Regions

All 16 regions are projected to have more households in 2038 than in 2013. The largest numerical increase is projected in the Auckland region, from 498,000 in 2013 to 752,000 in 2038, up an average of 1.7 percent a year. This accounts for more than half (51 percent) of the national growth in the number of households projected over this period. By comparison, the region is projected to account for 60 percent of New Zealand's population growth between 2013 and 2038. By 2038, 35 percent of all households in New Zealand will be in the Auckland region, up from 30 percent in 2013. The Canterbury region, with a projected average increase of 1.1 percent a year, is the only other region projected to experience growth in the number of households that is at or above the national average (also 1.1 percent).

Territorial authority areas

Among the 67 TAs, 57 are projected to have more households in 2038 than in 2013. Nine are projected to experience average annual growth greater than the national average: Selwyn district (2.7 percent), Queenstown-Lakes district (2.0 percent), Waimakariri district (1.8 percent), Auckland (1.7 percent), Waikato district and Hamilton city (1.5 percent each), Tauranga city (1.4 percent), and Waipa and Ashburton districts (1.1 percent each). These areas are also projected to have the highest rates of population growth.

The greatest numerical growth in households over the 2013–38 period is projected to be in Auckland (254,000), Christchurch city (35,000), Hamilton city (24,000), Tauranga city (19,000), Wellington city (18,000), Selwyn district (15,000), and Waimakariri and Waikato districts (11,000 each).

Auckland local board areas

Among the 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs), all are projected to have more households in 2038 than in 2013, except for Great Barrier. Seventeen LBAs are projected to experience average annual growth greater than the national average.

In 2013, average household size in LBAs ranged from 4.0 people in Mangere-Otahuhu to 1.9 people in Great Barrier. Like other geographic areas, average household size is projected to generally decline. In 2038, average household size is projected to range from 3.7 people per household in Mangere-Otahuhu to 2.0 people in Waitemata.

Families

Almost all TAs are projected to have more one-person households in 2038 than in 2013. The number in Selwyn district will more than double (153 percent) over the 25-year period. Other large increases are projected for Queenstown-Lakes (up 96 percent), Waimakariri (up 95 percent), and Waikato districts (up 82 percent).

Nearly all TAs are projected to have more couple-without-children families in 2038 than in 2013. The exceptions are Waitomo, Kawerau, Opotiki, Wairoa, and Ruapehu districts, and Chatham Island territory – all these areas also have projected lower populations in 2038. The number of couple-without-children families is projected to more than double in Selwyn district (from 6,000 to 13,000) over this period. Other areas with notable increases are Queenstown-Lakes (up 93 percent) and Waimakariri districts (up 80 percent).

Page updated 19 February 2016

  • Share this page to Facebook
  • Share this page to Twitter
  • Share this page to Google+
Top
  • Share this page to Facebook
  • Share this page to Twitter
  • Share this page to Google+