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Subnational Māori projections

For detailed projections see:

The medium projection shows that the Māori population is likely to increase in all regions, all Auckland local board areas (LBAs), and almost all territorial authority areas (TAs) between 2013 and 2038.

Drivers of growth

Māori population growth will be driven by the high rates of Māori birth and natural increase, which generally offset any population losses due to migration and inter-ethnic mobility (people changing their ethnic identification). Ethnic intermarriage is also an important contribution to population growth; nationally, about one-quarter of Māori births have a Māori father and a non-Māori mother. The population has a young age structure, with relatively high proportions in the child and childbearing ages and low proportions in the older ages. This provides built-in momentum for future growth.

Territorial authority areas

Hamilton city had the largest Māori population in 2013. It is projected to experience the largest numerical increase in Māori population (24,000), from 33,000 in 2013 to 57,000 in 2038. Selwyn, Queenstown-Lakes, Mackenzie, Waimate, Ashburton, Waitaki, and Waimakariri districts are projected to double their Māori population between 2013 and 2038. Similar increases are projected for the Hibiscus and Bays, Howick, and Upper Harbour LBAs in the Auckland region. The average annual growth for each TA area will be about 3 percent between 2013 and 2038, compared with a national average of 1.8 percent.

The Māori population is projected to make up over 50 percent of the total population in these TAs: Wairoa district (up 14 percentage points to 76 percent); Kawerau district (up 15 percentage points to 75 percent); Opotiki district (up 10 percentage points to 68 percent); and the Far North district (up 10 percentage points to 55 percent).

Regions

The Māori population will increase its share of the total population in all regions, almost all TAs, and most Auckland LBAs between 2013 and 2038. It will make up about 61 percent of Gisborne’s population in 2038, up from 49 percent in 2013. Other regions that will experience a significant rise in Māori population include Northland (up 12 percentage points to 45 percent in 2038), Taranaki (up 10 percentage points to 28 percent in 2038), Hawke's Bay (up 9 percentage points to 34 percent in 2038), and Manawatu-Wanganui (up 9 percentage points to 31 percent in 2038).

Page updated 19 February 2016

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