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Subnational Pacific projections

For detailed projections see:

The broad Pacific ethnic population will grow in all regions, all territorial authority areas (TAs), and most Auckland local board areas (LBAs) between 2013 and 2038 under the medium projection. Waitemata LBA’s Pacific population is projected to be slightly lower.

Drivers of growth

The Pacific population will increase its share of the total population in all regions, most TAs, and most Auckland LBAs between 2013 and 2038 because of the population's higher growth rates. The growth will be driven by the higher rates of Pacific births and natural increase. Ethnic intermarriage also makes an important contribution to population growth; nationally, about one-quarter of Pacific births have a Pacific father and a non-Pacific mother. The Pacific population has a young age structure, with relatively high proportions in the child and childbearing ages and low proportions in the older ages. This provides built-in momentum for future growth. Pacific migration generally plays a relatively minor role in the projected population changes.

Regions

The Pacific population will make up about 18 percent of the Auckland population in 2038, up from about 15 percent in 2013. Other regional increases in the Pacific share include Hawke's Bay (up 5 percentage points to 10 percent in 2038), Northland (up 5 percentage points to 8 percent in 2038), and Gisborne (up 5 percentage points to 9 percent in 2038).

The majority of the Pacific population will still live in the Auckland region by 2038 (down 3.6 percentage points to 62.3 percent in 2038), while Wellington will remain the second most-populous Pacific region (down 2.9 percentage points to 8.9 percent in 2038). Small increases in the proportion of the Pacific population living in the other regions are projected.

Auckland local board areas

By 2038, the broad Pacific population is projected to become the largest of the major ethnic groups in Manurewa LBA, and remain the largest group in Mangere-Otahuhu LBA, under the medium projection.

Page updated 19 February 2016

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